Live Nation Entertainment Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Live Nation Entertainment Inc

LYVNYSE

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryMovies & Entertainment

Beta (adjusted)1.07

Intrinsic Value $111.60median of 5 methods · middle span $29-$163based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $166.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $38.9B

Enterprise Value $39.1B

Shares Outstanding 229.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Live Nation entered the second half of 2026 with record event-related deferred revenue, strong global ticket demand, expanding international attendance, and management still expecting double-digit full-year adjusted operating income growth. Ticketmaster and Sponsorship & Advertising are producing double-digit quarterly growth, while a pipeline of more than 25 large venues offers additional capacity and attractive stated project returns. These strengths are offset by unusually material legal uncertainty: the company recognized a $450 million estimate related to governmental litigation, the proposed federal settlement still requires court approval, litigating states continue to pursue remedies, and a separate FTC action remains pending.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets24 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$145.00

Mean target$201.96

High · most bullish analyst$222.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$145.0025%

Post-trial remedies, civil penalties, or FTC-related outcomes materially exceed the current provision or constrain Ticketmaster's contracting and integration with Live Nation. At the same time, the heavily back-end-loaded Concerts outlook falls short, venue pre-opening costs persist, and the elevated capital program produces weaker-than-expected returns.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$201.9656%

Matches the consensus mean

Live Nation broadly achieves its 2026 operating outlook: Concerts growth accelerates in the second half, Ticketmaster grows at a mid-single-digit full-year rate, and Sponsorship & Advertising remains a double-digit grower. Legal costs and compliance requirements remain significant but do not force a separation of Ticketmaster or fundamentally impair the integrated model.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$222.0019%

The proposed federal settlement is approved without materially disruptive additional remedies, the remaining state litigation is resolved near the recognized estimate, and Ticketmaster retains its core operating model. Record deferred revenue converts successfully, Concerts produces the expected second-half acceleration, and venue projects achieve management's stated returns, sustaining double-digit adjusted operating income growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Demand indicators remain strong: more than 143 million concert tickets had been sold through mid-July 2026, over 14 million ahead of the prior-year pace, while second-quarter attendance reached nearly 49 million.
The higher-margin platforms are expanding: second-quarter Ticketmaster adjusted operating income grew 14% and Sponsorship & Advertising adjusted operating income grew 13%.
The venue pipeline includes more than 25 large venues expected to open through 2027, with management projecting 15 million incremental annual fans at run rate and returns above 20%.

Key Investment Risks

The company recognized a $450 million governmental-litigation estimate, but court approval of the federal settlement and the ultimate remedies and penalties sought by remaining states were unresolved in the latest filing.
A separate FTC and state lawsuit seeks injunctive relief, statutory penalties, and consumer restitution concerning ticket pricing and broker activity.
Second-quarter Concerts adjusted operating income declined 14%, and management expects most full-year improvement in the fourth quarter, increasing execution and timing risk around the back-end-loaded outlook.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.