Liquidity Services Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryInternet Retail Beta (adjusted)1.04 Intrinsic Value $27.93median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $43.64Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 36% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.4B Enterprise Value $1.1B Shares Outstanding 32.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Liquidity Services (NASDAQ: LQDT) is a leading operator of B2B e-commerce marketplaces powering the circular economy. The company is successfully executing its asset-light RISE (Recovery maximization, Increasing sales, Service expansion, and Expense leverage) strategy, shifting its business mix toward high-margin consignment transactions. This transition has unlocked significant operating leverage, driving robust Adjusted EBITDA and EPS growth despite flat or slightly lower GAAP revenues. Backed by a fortress balance sheet with over $200 million in cash and zero financial debt, Liquidity Services is uniquely positioned to capture market share in a highly fragmented $130 billion B2B surplus asset market. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$50.00 Mean target$51.00 High · most bullish analyst$52.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects potential headwinds from a severe macroeconomic slowdown that reduces corporate capital expenditures, thereby limiting the volume of surplus assets generated by commercial enterprises. Furthermore, intense competition from mass-market platforms (e.g., eBay) or specialized niche auctioneers could compress commission take rates, while a sudden shift back to lower-margin purchase model contracts could temporarily depress operating margins. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes steady expansion of the GovDeals and Retail Supply Chain (RSCG) segments, supported by continuous onboarding of government agencies and corporate sellers. Consignment transactions remain the dominant model, maintaining consolidated revenue as a percentage of GMV slightly below 30% while expanding segment direct profit margins. Operating leverage drives double-digit Adjusted EBITDA growth, and the company utilizes its strong cash position for opportunistic share repurchases and selective technology acquisitions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |