Liquidia Corp Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Beta (adjusted)0.72 Intrinsic Value $80.43median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $27.99Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 187% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+187%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.5B Shares Outstanding 101.9M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Liquidia Corp has successfully transitioned into a highly profitable, self-funded commercial biopharmaceutical company following the blowout launch of YUTREPIA. With net product sales reaching $129.9 million in Q1 2026 and a third consecutive quarter of profitability, the company is well on its way to capturing significant market share in the inhaled treprostinil space. The primary investment thesis centers on YUTREPIA's superior dry-powder delivery profile, rapid market penetration, and the potential of its next-generation pipeline candidate L606 to expand the addressable market. While litigation risks with United Therapeutics remain an overhang, recent favorable legal precedents have significantly reduced the probability of market withdrawal, making Liquidia an attractive growth play with a clear path to $1 billion in annualized revenue by 2027. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$90.00 Mean target$107.75 High · most bullish analyst$130.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Adverse legal rulings in the ongoing patent disputes force YUTREPIA off the market or severely limit its commercialization. Competitive pressure intensifies from next-generation once-daily therapies, capping Liquidia's market share. The company is forced to rely on generic treprostinil service revenues, and the stock falls back to its historical support levels. Base CaseCentral scenario YUTREPIA continues its strong commercial trajectory, capturing approximately 25-30% of the inhaled prostacyclin market. The company achieves its target of $1 billion in net revenue by 2027, supported by expansion of the sales force and deeper penetration into the PH-ILD community. Litigation with United Therapeutics is resolved favorably or settled, preserving market access. WACC is modeled at 12% to account for residual legal risks. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |