Lineage Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Lineage Inc

LINENASDAQ

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Industrial

Beta (adjusted)0.92

Intrinsic Value $52.58median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2025

Market Price $33.97Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 55% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+55%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $8.5B

Enterprise Value $14.7B

Shares Outstanding 227M diluted

Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Lineage showed improving same-warehouse occupancy and positive global warehousing revenue and throughput trends in the second quarter of 2026, but adjusted EBITDA, AFFO, and same-warehouse NOI remained below prior-year levels. Management raised the lower end of its full-year AFFO-per-share guidance, supporting a stabilization thesis, while continued margin pressure limits conviction.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$35.00

Mean target$45.11

High · most bullish analyst$63.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$35.0020%

The occupancy recovery reverses, same-warehouse NOI remains under pressure, and weakness in Global Integrated Solutions persists, causing adjusted EBITDA or AFFO per share to fall below the lower end of 2026 guidance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$45.1155%

Matches the consensus mean

Operating conditions continue to stabilize, with occupancy gains and warehousing growth offset by labor, power, and other cost pressure. Results finish within the company's 2026 adjusted EBITDA and AFFO-per-share guidance ranges.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$63.0025%

Occupancy normalization persists, throughput growth converts into stronger same-warehouse NOI, and cost control allows adjusted EBITDA and AFFO per share to finish above the upper ends of the company's 2026 guidance ranges.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter same-warehouse physical occupancy was 75.8%, 90 basis points above the prior-year quarter, supporting management's view that inventory conditions are normalizing.
Second-quarter global warehousing revenue increased 3.6%, while throughput pallets increased 5.9% and warehouse-services revenue per throughput pallet increased 1.4%.
Management updated full-year 2026 guidance to adjusted EBITDA of $1.26-$1.29 billion and AFFO per share of $2.80-$3.05.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA declined 1.8%, adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 60 basis points, and AFFO per share declined 6.2% year over year.
Second-quarter same-warehouse NOI declined 2.9% and same-warehouse margin contracted 130 basis points despite improved occupancy.
Second-quarter Global Integrated Solutions revenue declined 6.3% and segment NOI declined 10.3% year over year.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.