Linde plc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Linde plc

LINNASDAQ

SectorMaterials

IndustryIndustrial Gases

Beta (adjusted)0.81

Intrinsic Value $422.58median of 6 methods · middle span $390-$527based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $469.45Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $216.4B

Enterprise Value $234.7B

Shares Outstanding 462.8M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend3 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Linde entered the second half of 2026 with record quarterly sales and adjusted EPS, an $8.1 billion sale-of-gas backlog and full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $17.70-$17.90. A new long-term semiconductor supply agreement requiring a $1 billion Phoenix expansion strengthens the contracted growth pipeline. However, second-quarter adjusted operating margin declined to 29.5%.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets25 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$400.00

Mean target$547.24

High · most bullish analyst$612.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$400.0020%

Cost inflation, weaker pricing or project delays push adjusted EPS below guidance and extend the second-quarter margin decline, while backlog replenishment fails to offset project commissioning.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$547.2455%

Matches the consensus mean

Linde delivers adjusted EPS within its $17.70-$17.90 full-year range, converts projects broadly on schedule and maintains a sale-of-gas backlog near the record level, while margin recovery remains gradual.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$612.0025%

Backlog conversion, semiconductor demand and successful execution of the Phoenix expansion support sustained earnings growth, while pricing and productivity restore margin momentum.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 adjusted diluted EPS reached $4.50, and management guided to full-year adjusted EPS of $17.70-$17.90.
The sale-of-gas project backlog increased by $1 billion to a record $8.1 billion, providing a contracted growth pipeline.
A new long-term semiconductor supply agreement supports a $1 billion expansion of Linde's Phoenix on-site gas complex.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter adjusted operating profit margin was 29.5%, down 60 basis points year over year as inflation offset pricing and productivity benefits.
The $1 billion Phoenix semiconductor expansion creates material construction, commissioning and customer-demand execution exposure.
Management identifies foreign-exchange movements, energy and raw-material costs, trade conflicts and the ability to offset inflation through pricing as uncertainties.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.