Lincoln National Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Life Beta (adjusted)1.10 Intrinsic Value $32.58median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $39.73Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7.6B Enterprise Value $3.9B Shares Outstanding 205.5M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Next ex-dividend9 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) is undergoing a multi-year strategic transformation aimed at reducing market sensitivity, strengthening its capital foundation, and shifting its product mix toward higher-quality, less volatile earnings. While the company has demonstrated consistent progress—evidenced by seven consecutive quarters of year-over-year adjusted operating income growth and achieving its long-term leverage target of 25%—it continues to face headwinds from variable annuity outflows and GAAP net losses driven by non-economic market risk benefits. A 'Hold' recommendation reflects a balanced view of LNC's successful operational execution against persistent legacy book pressures and macroeconomic uncertainties. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$35.00 Mean target$47.08 High · most bullish analyst$60.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case is triggered by a severe equity market downturn or rapid interest rate cuts that compress spreads and negatively impact alternative investment yields. Operational risks include a spike in the disability loss ratio within Group Protection and accelerated variable annuity outflows that severely erode the fee-earning asset base, stalling the company's capital recovery. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Lincoln National successfully executes its strategic shift toward spread-based annuities (such as RILAs and fixed annuities) and continues to expand its Group Protection and Retirement Plan Services segments. Operating margins in Group Protection are expected to stabilize around 8%, and holding company liquidity will remain robust above its target levels. Legacy variable annuity outflows will continue but at a manageable pace, allowing the company to gradually improve its free cash flow profile. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |