Lincoln Educational Services Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryEducation & Training Services Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value $25.44median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $22.17Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $703.3M Enterprise Value $705.9M Shares Outstanding 31.8M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Dec 2014 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Lincoln Educational Services (LINC) is executing exceptionally well on its strategic expansion plan, capitalizing on the widening U.S. skills gap in vocational trades, transportation, and healthcare. The company's Q1 2026 results demonstrated robust operational leverage, with student starts growing 19.5% and adjusted EBITDA surging 85%. Management's upward revision of full-year 2026 guidance and their clear roadmap to 2030 ($850M revenue and $150M EBITDA targets) highlight a strong long-term growth trajectory. While capital expenditures remain high due to aggressive campus rollouts, the underlying demand from corporate partners and students provides strong visibility into future earnings. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$50.00 Mean target$53.20 High · most bullish analyst$60.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Regulatory headwinds, such as stricter enforcement of Title IV funding rules or changes to the 90/10 rule, restrict student enrollment. Additionally, pre-opening losses and capital expenditures for new campuses exceed expectations, constraining free cash flow and pressuring net income. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes its campus expansion and program replication strategy, maintaining double-digit student start growth. Operating leverage from the hybrid teaching model (Lincoln 10.0) continues to expand margins, and the company achieves the midpoint of its raised FY 2026 guidance (revenue of $595 million and adjusted EBITDA of $78 million). Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |