Limoneira Co Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryAgricultural Products Beta (adjusted)0.54 Intrinsic Value $12.69median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $11.92Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $216.1M Enterprise Value $315.4M Shares Outstanding 17.9M diluted Last ex-dividend30 Dec 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Limoneira is undergoing a profound strategic transformation from a capital-intensive farming operation to an asset-light, high-margin agribusiness and asset-monetization platform. Key pillars of this transition include the Sunkist packing partnership, the execution of the 50/50 Agromin organics recycling joint venture, and the monetization of valuable land and water assets (such as the Yuma water rights and the Paso Robles vineyard sale). While near-term revenues reflect the seasonal shift and exit from non-core operations, the long-term earnings power and cash flow generation are significantly enhanced. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$15.00 Mean target$21.33 High · most bullish analyst$31.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $13.0020% Adverse weather conditions or pest pressures severely impact California lemon and avocado yields, causing volumes to fall below guidance. Delays in the permitting or construction of the Agromin composting facility push back cash flow contributions past FY 2027, and real estate cash distributions slow down. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.0055% Limoneira successfully achieves its targeted $10 million in annual SG&A savings in FY 2026. Fresh lemon volumes hit the guided 4.0M to 4.5M cartons, and avocado volumes reach the upgraded 5.5M to 6.5M pounds range. The Agromin JV remains on track for H2 FY 2027 operations, and the $16 million Paso Robles vineyard sale closes successfully. Bull CaseUpside scenario $22.0030% Rapid monetization of Yuma water rights and Harvest at Limoneira real estate cash flows exceed expectations. The Agromin JV scales quickly in H2 FY 2027, capturing high-margin gate fees and compost sales, while the Sunkist partnership drives SG&A savings above the targeted $10 million. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |