Life Time Group Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryLeisure Beta (adjusted)1.33 Intrinsic Value $31.99median of 6 methods · middle span $19-$33based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $40.36Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9B Enterprise Value $10.3B Shares Outstanding 228.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Life Time entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 13.7%, Adjusted EBITDA increased 16.8%, comparable-center revenue grew 9.1%, and average center revenue per membership increased 11.8%. Management raised its 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA outlook and expects 14 club openings. The principal offsets are execution risk from a back-end-weighted opening schedule, elevated expansion spending, and increasing lease exposure under the asset-light strategy. This assessment withholds scenario price targets and adopts a valuation-neutral Hold despite favorable operating trends. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$39.00 Mean target$54.43 High · most bullish analyst$64.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $39.0018% Comparable-center growth falls below 7.9%, some fourth-quarter openings slip, or construction, labor, rent, and operating costs prevent the expected revenue growth from producing the guided earnings outcome. A leverage ratio above management's 2.0x ceiling would further weaken the case. Base CaseCentral scenario $54.4358% Matches the consensus meanLife Time delivers broadly within its raised 2026 outlook, including $3.350-$3.375 billion of revenue, $940-$955 million of Adjusted EBITDA, 7.9%-8.3% comparable-center revenue growth, and 14 openings, while maintaining leverage at or below 2.0x. Bull CaseUpside scenario $64.0024% Comparable-center revenue remains at or above the upper end of the 7.9%-8.3% outlook, all 14 planned clubs open, membership mix and in-center utilization continue improving, and Adjusted EBITDA reaches or exceeds the upper end of the $940-$955 million guidance range while leverage remains at or below 2.0x. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |