Liberty Latin America Ltd Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryTelecom Services Beta (adjusted)0.78 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $8.36Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.6B Enterprise Value $9.4B Shares Outstanding 195.9M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Liberty Latin America (LLA) is navigating a complex operational turnaround across its geographically fragmented footprint. While Q1 2026 results demonstrated commercial resilience with 50,000 postpaid net additions and a strong pivot to shareholder returns via a $500 million Series A Preference Share distribution, the company remains constrained by high leverage (4.5x net debt/OIBDA) and persistent operational headwinds. Stagnant top-line growth, competitive pressures in Costa Rica, and the lingering recovery from Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica offset wholesale subsea capacity gains at Liberty Networks. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted until LLA demonstrates consistent organic revenue growth and successful deleveraging. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.00 Mean target$11.07 High · most bullish analyst$14.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $7.00 The bear case is triggered by prolonged integration and migration issues in Puerto Rico, intensifying price wars in Costa Rica's fixed market, and further severe weather events in the Caribbean. Under this scenario, high debt service costs on LLA's $8.4 billion leverage load restrict capital expenditure, leading to subscriber churn, margin contraction, and a decline in equity value. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.07 Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes flat to slightly positive rebased revenue growth as Jamaica gradually recovers from Hurricane Melissa and Puerto Rico stabilizes under new leadership. Margins are supported by ongoing cost-reduction initiatives, while the $500 million preferred stock distribution provides a steady yield to shareholders. Leverage remains elevated but manageable, keeping the stock range-bound. Bull CaseUpside scenario $14.00 The bull case is driven by rapid operational stabilization in Puerto Rico, accelerated fixed reconnections in Jamaica ahead of schedule, and strong wholesale demand at Liberty Networks. Additionally, the successful launch of the Liberty-Starlink direct-to-cell service in Costa Rica and the proposed Millicom merger could unlock significant regional synergies, driving margin expansion and robust free cash flow to support aggressive common stock buybacks. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |