Li Auto Inc ADR Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto Manufacturers Beta (adjusted)0.71 Intrinsic Value $25.08median of 5 methods · middle span $8-$27based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $11.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 126% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+126%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.9B Enterprise Value $4.1B Shares Outstanding 977.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date25 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Li Auto enters the second half of 2026 with mixed operating signals. Second-quarter deliveries of 98,330 vehicles declined 11.5% year over year, but management expects 95,000-100,000 deliveries in Q3, representing renewed year-over-year growth. The refreshed Li L range, sustained Li i6 volume, a growing fast-charging network and initial overseas localization provide recovery options. These positives are balanced by intense competition, uncertain demand after model refreshes and recent contraction in the retail-store footprint. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.06 Mean target$18.17 High · most bullish analyst$27.01 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.0624% Quarterly deliveries fall below 95,000 vehicles, Li i6 drops to or below 20,000 monthly deliveries, and continued retail-network contraction signals weak demand despite the refreshed lineup. Competitive pricing and rapid product cycles then delay a durable operating recovery. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.1755% Matches the consensus meanQuarterly deliveries remain within management's 95,000-100,000 Q3 guidance range, Li i6 sustains its recent operating benchmark and the product refresh stabilizes domestic demand without immediately restoring prior growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $27.0121% The refreshed Li L6, L8 and L9 gain traction while Li i6 remains above 20,000 monthly deliveries. Quarterly deliveries exceed the top of management's Q3 range, charging infrastructure continues expanding and localized production in Kazakhstan begins to establish an overseas growth channel. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |