LGI Homes Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryResidential Construction Beta (adjusted)1.55 Intrinsic Value $28.44median of 5 methods · middle span $25-$64based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $47.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 40% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $2.7B Shares Outstanding 23.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) is a leading builder of entry-level homes, uniquely positioned to capture demand from first-time homebuyers. While the company has demonstrated operational resilience—raising its 2026 gross margin guidance following a strong Q1 performance and reporting solid backlog growth—it continues to navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment. Elevated mortgage rates and affordability constraints keep cancellation rates high (45.6% in Q1 2026), and leverage remains near the upper bound of management's target range. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market balances LGI's strong operational execution and self-developed land advantages against persistent affordability headwinds. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$93.00 Mean target$93.00 High · most bullish analyst$93.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent inflation and further rate hikes exacerbate affordability challenges, pushing cancellation rates above 50%. LGI is forced to increase sales incentives and mortgage buy-downs, compressing adjusted gross margins below 21.0%. Home closings fall short of the 4,600-unit guidance floor, and elevated leverage limits capital allocation flexibility, leading to downward revisions in valuation multiples. Base CaseCentral scenario The housing market remains constrained by high mortgage rates, but steady demand for entry-level homes allows LGI Homes to meet its tightened full-year guidance. The company successfully closes between 4,600 and 5,400 homes in 2026, maintaining an average selling price (ASP) of $355,000 to $365,000. Adjusted gross margins stabilize within the raised 22.0% to 24.0% range due to disciplined cost controls and self-developed land advantages, offsetting elevated sales incentives. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |