LeonaBio Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $4.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $41.3M Shares Outstanding 9.4M diluted All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary LeonaBio Inc. (formerly Athira Pharma, Inc.) has undergone a transformative pivot following its strategic acquisition of the global rights (excluding Asia and certain Middle Eastern countries) to lasofoxifene, a promising late-stage selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM) for metastatic breast cancer. This acquisition, combined with a successful $90 million private placement, significantly de-risks the company's pipeline by shifting focus from early-stage neurology to a Phase 3 oncology asset with a readout expected in 2H 2027. While the company continues to advance its CNS-penetrant HGF modulator ATH-1105 for ALS, the near-to-medium term valuation will be heavily driven by lasofoxifene's clinical progress in ESR1-mutated breast cancer. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$16.00 Mean target$18.00 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $16.0020% LeonaBio experiences clinical enrollment delays in the ELAINE-3 trial, pushing the topline data readout past 2027. High R&D expenses accelerate cash burn, forcing dilutive capital raises before key clinical milestones are achieved. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.0050% Matches the consensus meanThe Phase 3 ELAINE-3 trial completes enrollment on schedule in Q4 2026, and the Phase 2 ALS trial for ATH-1105 is successfully initiated in 2H 2026. The company maintains disciplined cost controls, preserving its cash runway into the topline data readout in 2H 2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.0030% Lasofoxifene demonstrates superior efficacy and safety in the Phase 3 ELAINE-3 trial, establishing itself as the preferred endocrine therapy for ESR1-mutated metastatic breast cancer. Simultaneously, ATH-1105 shows strong neuroprotective signals in its Phase 2 ALS trial, positioning LeonaBio as a multi-therapeutic leader in oncology and neurology. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |