Lennox International Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Lennox International Inc

LIINYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryBuilding Products & Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.11

Intrinsic Value $465.63median of 6 methods · middle span $442-$531based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $360.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $12.5B

Enterprise Value $13.6B

Shares Outstanding 34.7M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Lennox presents a mixed operating setup. Building Climate Solutions delivered strong second-quarter growth and supports management's long-term targets, while Home Comfort Solutions remained pressured by weak residential demand. Management maintained approximately 8% FY2026 revenue-growth guidance but reduced diluted EPS guidance to $23.00-$24.00. The balance between commercial momentum, acquisition contributions and cash generation on one side, and residential volume, cost absorption, tariffs and integration execution on the other, supports a Hold stance pending clearer residential stabilization.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$450.00

Mean target$511.15

High · most bullish analyst$609.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$450.0024%

Residential weakness persists, lower factory absorption and inflation outweigh pricing, Building Climate Solutions decelerates, or acquisition integration underperforms, causing results to fall below the lower ends of management's EPS and free-cash-flow guidance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$511.1558%

Matches the consensus mean

Commercial momentum and acquisition contributions largely offset continued residential softness, allowing Lennox to deliver near its approximately 8% revenue-growth guidance and $23.00-$24.00 diluted EPS range.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$609.0018%

Building Climate Solutions sustains strong organic growth, recent acquisitions broaden distribution and parts exposure, residential demand improves, and execution remains consistent with the 2030 revenue, margin and cash-conversion targets.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Building Climate Solutions produced 24% second-quarter revenue growth, including 15% organic growth, and expanded segment margin by 100 basis points to 25.5%.
Management established 2030 targets of $6.5-$7.5 billion in revenue, 22%-23% segment profit margins and free cash flow conversion above 90% of net income.
FY2026 free cash flow guidance remained $750-$850 million despite the reduction in EPS guidance.
Commercial distribution and production investments support rapid fulfillment, with Lennox reporting that more than 90% of commercial rooftop units and accessories can be delivered within one day.
The quarterly dividend increased from $1.30 to $1.36 per share in May 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Home Comfort Solutions second-quarter revenue declined 7%, profit declined 12% and segment margin contracted 130 basis points.
Management reduced FY2026 diluted EPS guidance to $23.00-$24.00 from $23.50-$25.00.
The investment case depends partly on successfully integrating Duro Dyne, Supco and Heat Controller and realizing expected market-access benefits.
Weather, residential construction, tariffs, inflation, supply conditions and factory utilization can materially affect demand and profitability.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.