Lennar Corp Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryHomebuilding Beta (adjusted)1.27 Intrinsic Value $42.93median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $82.11Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 48% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $19.8B Enterprise Value $21.9B Shares Outstanding 238.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date15 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Lennar's scale, cost reductions, shorter construction cycle and asset-light land strategy support resilience, but elevated mortgage rates and constrained affordability continue to require substantial incentives and lower selling prices. Q2 2026 deliveries increased 2% year over year, while new orders declined 4%, average delivered price declined 5%, and gross margin fell to 15.6% from 17.8%. Management expects modest sequential margin improvement in Q3 but reduced its full-year delivery target to 82,000-83,000 homes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$67.00 Mean target$86.23 High · most bullish analyst$120.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $67.0026% Persistently high mortgage rates, weak affordability and cautious consumer sentiment force Lennar to maintain or increase incentives and price concessions. Orders and deliveries fall below guidance, gross margin fails to recover, and lower mortgage profitability compounds pressure from the homebuilding operation. Base CaseCentral scenario $86.2356% Matches the consensus meanLennar broadly executes its Q3 guidance of 20,500-21,500 deliveries, 21,000-22,000 orders and approximately 16% gross margin, while full-year deliveries remain near the revised 82,000-83,000 target. Incentives remain elevated, limiting the speed of margin recovery. Bull CaseUpside scenario $120.0018% Affordability improves and incentive requirements move toward management's cited normalized range of 4%-6%. Lennar's lower construction costs, 121-day cycle time and asset-light model then convert sustained volume into stronger margins and cash generation. Deferred housing demand provides additional operating leverage if mortgage rates ease. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |