Leidos Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryInformation Technology Services Beta (adjusted)0.69 Intrinsic Value $156.55median of 6 methods · middle span $106-$276based on filings through 3 Jul 2026 Market Price $121.97Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $15.3B Enterprise Value $20.6B Shares Outstanding 127M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Leidos entered the second half of 2026 with favorable revenue momentum, strong cash generation, a larger funded backlog and raised full-year guidance. Defense technology, intelligence, cyber and energy-infrastructure demand provide meaningful growth avenues, reinforced by recent contract awards. The offset is weakening Health revenue, lower consolidated margin versus the unusually strong prior-year quarter, execution risk around acquisitions and restructuring, and higher debt. The balanced evidence supports a Hold rather than a directional valuation call. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$120.00 Mean target$153.60 High · most bullish analyst$225.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $120.0020% Downside would emerge if Health contracts further, bookings fall below replacement levels, fixed-price or integration execution weakens margins, or elevated debt constrains capital deployment. Failure to reach the lower bounds of FY2026 guidance would materially weaken the operating thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $153.6055% Matches the consensus meanThe modal case assumes Leidos delivers within its FY2026 revenue and earnings guidance, with growth in Defense, Homeland and Intelligence & Digital offsetting continued Health pressure. Backlog supports visibility, but margin normalization and integration costs limit near-term operating leverage. Bull CaseUpside scenario $225.0025% Upside would require Defense, Homeland and Intelligence & Digital growth to remain broad-based, bookings to stay above revenue, and recent cyber, defense-technology and infrastructure awards to convert into profitable sales while Health stabilizes. Sustained cash conversion and execution near the upper end of FY2026 guidance would strengthen this outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |