Legence Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryConstruction & Engineering Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $51.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.5B Enterprise Value $9B Shares Outstanding 164.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date13 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Legence Corp. (LGN) represents a highly compelling investment opportunity in the built-environment decarbonization and mission-critical infrastructure services sector. Following its successful IPO in September 2025 and subsequent secondary offering in April 2026, the company has significantly reduced its debt leverage and sponsor ownership (Blackstone stake reduced to ~47%). Legence is uniquely positioned to capture massive secular tailwinds from the AI-driven data center boom, high-tech manufacturing, and stringent building decarbonization regulations. Its robust 'buy-and-build' strategy, highlighted by the massive acquisition of Bowers Group in early 2026, has accelerated its scale, driving Q1 2026 revenues past $1 billion and expanding its total backlog to a record $5.38 billion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$80.00 Mean target$103.00 High · most bullish analyst$125.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $54.00 A broader economic slowdown or high interest rates depress commercial real estate retrofits and public sector capital expenditure. Integration bottlenecks with Bowers Group or execution delays on fixed-price contracts lead to margin compression and slower deleveraging. Base CaseCentral scenario $103.00 Matches the consensus meanLegence successfully executes its backlog of $5.38 billion, supported by steady demand in data centers, healthcare, and education. Full-year 2026 revenues reach the guided range of $4.1 billion to $4.3 billion, and adjusted EBITDA lands between $470 million and $490 million. Leverage remains stable around 3x to 4x. Bull CaseUpside scenario $125.00 Accelerated data center liquid cooling and AI infrastructure buildouts drive organic growth well above expectations. The integration of Bowers Group yields higher-than-expected cost and revenue synergies, while rapid deleveraging prompts further credit rating upgrades to investment grade, expanding institutional investor demand. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |