Lear Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto Parts Beta (adjusted)1.18 Intrinsic Value $171.98median of 6 methods · middle span $135-$216based on filings through 4 Jul 2026 Market Price $121.37Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 42% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.1B Enterprise Value $9.8B Shares Outstanding 66.6M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Lear Corporation is demonstrating strong operational execution and margin expansion across both its Seating and E-Systems segments, driven by disciplined cost controls, vertical integration, and significant new business wins. Despite a mixed global vehicle production environment, Lear's robust sales backlog and accelerating momentum with Chinese automakers position it to capture market share and drive long-term earnings leverage. The company's aggressive share buyback program and attractive valuation relative to historical averages provide a compelling entry point for investors seeking exposure to automotive technology and electrification trends. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$130.00 Mean target$150.50 High · most bullish analyst$179.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $130.00 A prolonged slowdown in global vehicle production, particularly in key light truck and SUV platforms, combined with persistent tariff headwinds and pricing pressure from major OEMs, compresses operating margins and limits free cash flow generation. Base CaseCentral scenario $150.50 Matches the consensus meanLear successfully executes on its multi-year sales backlog while maintaining stable margins through ongoing restructuring and operational efficiencies. Global vehicle production remains flat to modestly positive, allowing Lear to meet its full-year 2026 guidance and deliver steady free cash flow conversion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $179.00 Accelerated adoption of high-voltage electrical architectures and premium seating solutions drives content-per-vehicle growth. Stronger-than-expected vehicle production in North America and rapid market share gains with Chinese OEMs push full-year revenues and margins to the high end of guidance, supported by aggressive share repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |