LCI Industries Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRecreational Vehicles Beta (adjusted)1.12 Intrinsic Value $200.46median of 6 methods · middle span $103-$294based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $82.11Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 144% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+144%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2B Enterprise Value $2.6B Shares Outstanding 24.1M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary LCI Industries (LCII) has demonstrated strong operational execution and margin resilience, driven by self-help initiatives, plant optimizations, and robust aftermarket performance. However, the company faces near-term headwinds from a muted leisure market recovery, high interest rates, and a major leadership transition following the retirement of long-time CEO Jason Lippert in June 2026. While the stock remains fundamentally sound with a solid dividend yield, a 'Hold' rating is recommended until there is greater clarity on the permanent CEO appointment and a sustained recovery in wholesale RV shipments. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$114.00 Mean target$129.40 High · most bullish analyst$175.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $83.0020% The bear case reflects prolonged macroeconomic weakness, elevated interest rates, and persistent retail demand declines in the RV sector. Under this scenario, wholesale shipments fall below expectations, input costs rise due to tariff pressures, and the leadership transition creates operational friction, leading to margin contraction and downward earnings revisions. Base CaseCentral scenario $129.4050% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes gradual stabilization in the RV wholesale market with shipments in the range of 315,000 to 330,000 units for 2026. LCI Industries is expected to meet its tightened full-year guidance of $4.2 billion to $4.3 billion in revenue and EPS of $8.75 to $9.25, supported by steady aftermarket demand and content-per-unit growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $150.0030% The bull case is driven by a faster-than-expected recovery in the RV and marine markets, coupled with market share gains from newly launched innovative products (targeting more than $140 million of expected incremental annualized run rate from 2027 model placements). Continued margin expansion from plant consolidations and G&A restructuring could push operating margins back toward double digits, driving significant EPS upside. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |