Lattice Semiconductor Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Lattice Semiconductor Corp

LSCCNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)1.53

Intrinsic Value $62.94median of 6 methods · middle span $23-$78based on filings through 4 Jul 2026

Market Price $128.86Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 51% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-51%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $18.3B

Enterprise Value $18.1B

Shares Outstanding 140.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Operating momentum is strong: second-quarter revenue reached a record $201.1 million, increased 62.2% year over year, and was accompanied by a 71.7% non-GAAP gross margin, 43.0% adjusted EBITDA margin, and 40.4% free-cash-flow margin. New-product revenue grew more than 60%, and management guided Q3 total revenue to $245 million-$265 million after including approximately two months of AMI. The completed $1.65 billion AMI acquisition expands Lattice into platform firmware and infrastructure manageability and is expected by management to support a $1 billion-plus annual revenue run rate. These strengths are balanced by material integration, execution, dilution, earnings-quality, semiconductor-cycle, and geographic/channel-concentration risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$125.00

Mean target$164.92

High · most bullish analyst$180.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$125.0020%

Revenue falls below the Q3 guidance range or non-GAAP gross margin falls below 68.5% as FPGA demand weakens, backlog conversion slows, or AMI integration disrupts customers and employees. Acquisition costs, stock-based compensation, financing obligations, and additional shares then weigh on GAAP earnings and per-share value.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$164.9255%

Matches the consensus mean

Lattice delivers within its Q3 revenue and margin ranges, progresses toward the stated $1 billion-plus annual revenue run rate, and preserves AMI's customer and ecosystem neutrality while integration proceeds. Growth moderates after the initial recovery, and acquisition-related costs and share issuance constrain the translation of non-GAAP performance into GAAP per-share results.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$180.0025%

Lattice exceeds the upper end of Q3 guidance, sustains strong FPGA demand and new-product growth, and integrates AMI without disrupting its silicon-neutral relationships. AMI contributes its expected high-margin revenue, while combined-company gross margin, free cash flow, and earnings benefit from the acquisition sooner than planned.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 revenue was a record $201.1 million, up 62.2% year over year and 17.7% sequentially; Compute and Communications revenue reached $126.0 million and Industrial and Embedded revenue reached $75.1 million.
Q2 profitability and cash conversion were strong, with a 71.7% non-GAAP gross margin, 43.0% adjusted EBITDA margin, and 40.4% free-cash-flow margin.
New-product revenue grew more than 60% year over year and was tracking to exceed 25% of 2026 revenue, while management reported record design wins across data-center, communications, industrial, automotive, defense, and robotics applications.
AMI adds silicon-neutral platform firmware and infrastructure manageability to Lattice's FPGA portfolio; management expects the acquisition to be accretive to non-GAAP gross margin, free cash flow, and EPS and to support a $1 billion-plus annual revenue run rate.

Key Investment Risks

The $1.65 billion AMI transaction creates substantial integration and execution risk, including possible customer or employee disruption, delayed synergies, and failure to achieve the expected accretion.
Adjusted earnings materially exceed GAAP earnings: Q2 diluted EPS was $0.14 under GAAP versus $0.53 non-GAAP, and Q2 stock-based compensation was $44.9 million. The AMI consideration also included approximately 5.2 million newly issued shares.
Q2 revenue concentration was high, with 79% attributed to Asia and 95% sold through distribution, increasing exposure to regional conditions, channel inventory, order timing, trade restrictions, and distributor behavior.
Management identifies semiconductor cyclicality, customer and distributor inventory changes, tariffs, export controls, pricing pressure, supply constraints, and acquisition integration as factors that could cause results to differ materially from guidance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.