LATAM Airlines Group SA ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

LATAM Airlines Group SA ADR

LTMSantiago Stock Exchange

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAirlines

Beta (adjusted)0.92

Intrinsic Value $55.14median of 6 methods · middle span $45-$104based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $47.74Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 15% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $14B

Enterprise Value $19.9B

Shares Outstanding 287.1M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date13 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend8 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

LATAM entered the second half of 2026 with updated guidance for 9%-10% capacity growth, US$4.1-US$4.4 billion of adjusted EBITDA, at least US$4.7 billion of year-end liquidity and adjusted net leverage no higher than 1.6x. The operating platform remains supported by international expansion, a 56 million-member loyalty program and diversified premium, cargo and loyalty revenue streams. The offset is material fuel exposure: second-quarter fuel-related costs rose 93.1% year over year, while July traffic growth of 5.6% trailed capacity growth of 8.2%.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$69.00

Mean target$72.94

High · most bullish analyst$80.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$69.0020%

Persistently elevated fuel costs, traffic growth below capacity growth or a miss against EBITDA and leverage guidance could pressure margins and cash generation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$72.9458%

Matches the consensus mean

Capacity and earnings remain within management's updated ranges, liquidity reaches at least US$4.7 billion and leverage remains at or below 1.6x, but fuel volatility and the July traffic-capacity gap limit rerating.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$80.0022%

Execution at or above the top of updated guidance, normalization of fuel prices, sustained international demand and successful deployment of the Embraer E195-E2 fleet could restore stronger operating leverage.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Management raised and reinstated a broad FY2026 outlook that calls for US$4.1-US$4.4 billion of adjusted EBITDA, at least US$4.7 billion of year-end liquidity and adjusted net leverage at or below 1.6x.
LATAM continues to expand its network: July consolidated capacity increased 8.2% year over year, international capacity increased 10.8%, and new long-haul routes connected São Paulo with Punta Cana and Cape Town.
The loyalty and diversified-revenue ecosystem provides commercial resilience: LATAM Pass reached 56 million members and generated 67% of passenger revenue through its members in the second quarter.

Key Investment Risks

Fuel remains a major earnings variable: second-quarter fuel-related costs reached US$1.7 billion, up 93.1% year over year, while the price paid including hedges increased 81.3%.
July consolidated RPK growth of 5.6% lagged ASK growth of 8.2%, creating a negative 2.6-percentage-point traffic-capacity spread.
Fleet and network expansion create execution risk: LATAM plans to incorporate up to 14 Embraer E195-E2 aircraft between November 2026 and March 2027 across 42 routes.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.