Lantronix Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Lantronix Inc

LTRXNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryCommunications Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.46

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $7.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $331M

Enterprise Value $270.5M

Shares Outstanding 40.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Lantronix is successfully transitioning into a high-growth Edge AI and Industrial IoT platform provider, driven by strong momentum in its embedded compute solutions and rapid expansion in the unmanned aerial systems (UAS/drone) and counter-UAS markets. Despite near-term headwinds from cautious federal procurement cycles, the company's disciplined cost management, improving cash generation, and strategic partnerships (such as with Qualcomm and Vodafone's Pairpoint) position it for double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion in fiscal 2027.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.00

Mean target$10.33

High · most bullish analyst$12.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$8.0020%

Federal procurement delays persist well into FY2027, stagnating growth in the core IoT systems segment. Drone design wins face deployment delays, causing FY2026 drone revenue to miss the guided range and slowing the anticipated FY2027 ramp, while gross margins face downward pressure from unfavorable product mix.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$10.0050%

Lantronix delivers on its Q4 FY2026 guidance (revenue of $29M–$33M) and achieves its raised FY2026 drone revenue target of $10M–$14M. Embedded IoT solutions continue to grow at a ~20% YoY pace, and the company successfully transitions toward double-digit revenue growth in FY2027 while maintaining stable gross margins above 43%.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$11.0030%

The drone and counter-UAS business scales faster than expected, exceeding the $14 million high-end target for FY2026 and doubling in FY2027 to represent over 20% of total revenue. High-margin software and services recurring revenue accelerates into double-digits, driving non-GAAP gross margins above 45% and accelerating GAAP profitability.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong growth in Embedded IoT Solutions, which grew 22% year-over-year in Q3 FY2026.
Rapidly expanding footprint in the high-growth unmanned systems (UAS) and counter-UAS markets, with FY2026 drone revenue expectations raised to $10M–$14M.
Improving financial health, highlighted by positive operating cash flow ($7.9M YTD in Q3 FY2026) and sequential debt reduction.
Strategic partnerships with industry leaders like Qualcomm and Vodafone (Pairpoint) enhancing product capabilities and market reach.

Key Investment Risks

Slower federal procurement timing impacting the timing of IoT systems sales.
Customer concentration and reliance on key design wins in the emerging drone sector.
Persistent GAAP net losses despite positive non-GAAP net income and cash generation.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant downward revision of the FY2027 double-digit revenue growth outlook.
Failure of the drone business to scale or achieve the projected doubling of revenue in FY2027.
Gross margins falling consistently below 40% due to pricing pressure or unfavorable product mix.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.