Landstar System Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $167.19median of 6 methods · middle span $132-$289based on filings through 28 Mar 2026 Market Price $170.14Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.8B Enterprise Value $5.4B Shares Outstanding 33.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Landstar System Inc. (LSTR) operates a highly resilient, asset-light freight brokerage model that leverages a decentralized network of independent agents and business capacity owners (BCOs). This structure allows the company to maintain high cash conversion and variable cost flexibility throughout freight cycles. While Q1 2026 results demonstrated a positive inflection point—driven by strong pricing dynamics in the unsided/platform and heavy-haul segments, alongside lower insurance costs—the stock's current valuation is highly extended. Trading at a trailing P/E of over 57x, the market has already priced in a significant cyclical recovery, leaving limited room for multiple expansion and presenting near-term downside risk if macroeconomic headwinds persist. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$145.00 Mean target$196.38 High · most bullish analyst$240.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $145.00 Persistent soft demand, excess trucking capacity, or a downturn in industrial production pressures spot rates. Additionally, regulatory changes targeting the independent contractor model or rising insurance claims compress margins, leading to earnings normalization and multiple contraction. Base CaseCentral scenario $196.38 Matches the consensus meanThe freight market undergoes a gradual, moderate recovery through the remainder of 2026. Truckload volumes remain relatively flat, but steady pricing discipline and strong heavy-haul demand support high-single-digit revenue growth. Cost controls and normalized insurance claims keep margins stable, justifying a Hold rating at current elevated multiples. Bull CaseUpside scenario $240.00 A rapid tightening of industry capacity combined with a robust cyclical recovery in North American industrial production drives spot rates significantly higher. Landstar's platform and heavy-haul segments continue to capture premium pricing, while its AI-enabled agent portal drives operational efficiencies, leading to rapid EPS expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |