Lamar Advertising Co Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Specialty Beta (adjusted)1.12 Intrinsic Value $120.51median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $143.34Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.6B Enterprise Value $18B Shares Outstanding 100.9M diluted Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Lamar entered the second half of 2026 with favorable operating momentum: second-quarter net revenue rose 6.5%, acquisition-adjusted net revenue rose 6.1%, adjusted EBITDA rose 9.0%, and AFFO rose 10.1%. Management consequently raised fiscal-2026 diluted AFFO-per-share guidance to $8.75-$8.90. The board's subsequent $1.65 quarterly dividend declaration and expectation of at least $6.50 in aggregate 2026 distributions reinforce the income case. However, significant indebtedness, advertising's macroeconomic sensitivity, execution risk around digital deployment and acquisitions. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$151.00 Mean target$162.20 High · most bullish analyst$170.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $151.0020% A weakening advertising environment or execution shortfall causes acquisition-adjusted revenue growth to turn negative and diluted AFFO per share to fall below the $8.75 guidance floor. The downside would be amplified by Lamar's significant indebtedness and refinancing requirements, while weaker cash generation could pressure distribution growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $162.2055% Matches the consensus meanLamar delivers fiscal-2026 diluted AFFO per share within the stated $8.75-$8.90 range, maintains positive acquisition-adjusted revenue growth and completes the expected minimum $6.50 per-share aggregate 2026 distribution. Bull CaseUpside scenario $170.0025% Results remain near or above the upper end of management's revised outlook as strong customer demand, digital deployment and acquisition-adjusted revenue growth produce continued operating leverage. The AdSource transaction adds more than 230 billboard faces, including 30 digital displays, and demonstrates another channel for portfolio expansion through Lamar's UPREIT structure. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |