Lam Research Corporation Dossier - Source-backed chat

Lam Research Corporation

LRCXNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductor Materials & Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.59

Intrinsic Value $207.96median of 6 methods · middle span $110-$396based on filings through 28 Jun 2026

Market Price $340.10Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 39% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $425.6B

Enterprise Value $423.8B

Shares Outstanding 1.3B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend17 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Lam entered fiscal 2027 with record June-quarter revenue, operating margin, and earnings per share, while its September-quarter guidance calls for another substantial sequential revenue increase. The investment case is supported by AI-related semiconductor manufacturing complexity, expanding customer-support revenue, and continued technology investment. However, the issuer-reported share price of $513.98 already reflects considerable execution expectations, and 26% of June-quarter revenue came from China, where export controls and geopolitical developments remain material uncertainties.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets31 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$290.00

Mean target$368.94

High · most bullish analyst$500.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$290.0024%

A $400 scenario assumes revenue falls below the September guidance range, operating leverage reverses, China-related restrictions or customer spending changes reduce demand, or the planned laboratory expansion increases costs without commensurate commercial benefits.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$368.9455%

Matches the consensus mean

A $560 scenario assumes execution within the September guidance ranges, continued demand from advanced logic and memory customers, and durable customer-support revenue, balanced by semiconductor cyclicality, China exposure, export-control uncertainty, and substantial laboratory investment.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$500.0021%

A $650 scenario assumes Lam delivers near or above the upper end of its September revenue and margin ranges, AI-driven leading-edge equipment demand remains durable, customer-support revenue continues expanding, and the planned global laboratory investment strengthens product-development velocity without material execution disruption.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

June 2026 quarterly revenue reached $6.72 billion, with U.S. GAAP operating margin of 37.4% and diluted EPS of $1.81; management characterized revenue, operating margin, and EPS as records.
Customer support-related revenue and other reached $2.472 billion in the June quarter, up from $2.111 billion sequentially and $1.734 billion a year earlier, supporting a growing installed-base revenue stream.
Lam guided September-quarter revenue to $8.10 billion plus or minus $400 million and U.S. GAAP operating margin to 39.5% plus or minus one percentage point, while separately raising its quarterly dividend by 27% to $0.33.

Key Investment Risks

Lam identifies semiconductor and consumer-electronics conditions, customer investment decisions, export controls, tariffs, trade disputes, supply-chain disruption, and geopolitical instability as factors that could materially alter its outlook.
China represented 26% of June 2026 quarterly revenue, creating meaningful exposure to regulatory, trade, and customer-spending changes affecting that market.
Lam plans to invest more than $3 billion in its global laboratory network over five years; the scale and long duration introduce execution, timing, and return-on-investment uncertainty.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.