Ladder Capital Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ladder Capital Corp

LADRNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Mortgage

Beta (adjusted)0.97

Intrinsic Value $8.96median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $8.72Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $1.1B

Enterprise Value $5.1B

Shares Outstanding 126.9M diluted

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ladder Capital Corp (NYSE: LADR) represents a highly resilient, internally managed commercial mortgage REIT that is successfully transitioning back to growth. Despite a slight Q1 2026 earnings miss, the company's core operational engine is accelerating, highlighted by its highest quarterly loan origination volume in four years ($621 million in Q1 plus $372 million in April 2026). As the only commercial mortgage REIT with investment-grade ratings from both Fitch (BBB-) and Moody's (Baa3), Ladder maintains a conservative capital structure with 2.3x adjusted leverage and over $1.0 billion in undrawn liquidity. The stock trades at an attractive discount to its undepreciated book value of $13.42, and its 9.1% dividend yield is well-aligned with management's high insider ownership (~12%). Capital rotation into higher-yielding first mortgage loans is expected to drive distributable earnings above the dividend starting in Q2 2026, offering a compelling combination of high income and book value accretion.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$10.25

Mean target$12.00

High · most bullish analyst$13.50

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$10.25

Persistent high interest rates and refinancing challenges in the commercial real estate sector, particularly within the office space (~23% of portfolio), lead to borrower defaults. Non-accrual loans rise, forcing Ladder to increase its CECL reserves from the current $47 million. Distributable earnings fail to cover the dividend, leading to a dividend cut and downward pressure on the stock price.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$12.00

Matches the consensus mean

Ladder successfully executes its straightforward strategy of rotating capital into commercial real estate loans, growing total assets to slightly over $6.0 billion by year-end 2026. Distributable earnings recover to cover the $0.23 quarterly dividend starting in Q2 2026, supported by the seasoning of Q1 and Q2 originations. Credit quality remains stable with CECL reserves flat, and the stock trades up to its historical price-to-book multiple.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$13.50

Rapid deployment of robust liquidity into high-yielding first mortgage loans drives net interest margin expansion. Strong commercial real estate market recovery allows the company to exceed its full-year 2026 distributable EPS target of $0.98. Share buybacks executed under the newly authorized $100 million program at a discount to book value prove highly accretive, driving the stock to revalue to its full undepreciated book value.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Only commercial mortgage REIT with investment-grade ratings from both Fitch (BBB-) and Moody's (Baa3), reflecting a highly durable capital structure.
Strong alignment of interest with a founder-led management team and board holding a substantial over 11% insider ownership stake, making them collectively the Company's largest shareholder.
Robust liquidity profile with over $1.0 billion in undrawn capacity and a conservative adjusted leverage ratio of 2.3x.
Significant loan origination momentum with $621 million in Q1 2026 originations, marking the highest quarterly volume in four years.
Accretive capital allocation supported by a newly authorized $100 million stock buyback program while trading at a discount to book value.

Key Investment Risks

Exposure to the commercial office sector, which represents approximately 23% of the loan portfolio and faces ongoing secular headwinds.
Near-term dividend coverage pressure, with Q1 2026 distributable EPS of $0.22 slightly below the declared $0.23 quarterly dividend.
Potential compression of net interest margins if funding costs rise faster than asset yields in a volatile interest rate environment.
Refinancing risks for commercial borrowers which could lead to an increase in non-performing loans and higher CECL provisions.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sequential decline in the dividend coverage ratio below 90%, indicating structural cash flow shortfalls.
A material increase in the CECL reserve or realized loan write-downs exceeding $10 million in a single quarter.
A downgrade of the company's investment-grade credit ratings by Fitch or Moody's.
A significant slowdown in loan origination volumes below $300 million per quarter, limiting net interest income growth.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.