La-Z-Boy Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryFurnishings, Fixtures & Appliances Beta (adjusted)1.17 Intrinsic Value $25.23median of 6 methods · middle span $22-$33based on filings through 25 Jul 2026 Market Price $29.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.2B Enterprise Value $911.9M Shares Outstanding 39.9M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date2 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary La-Z-Boy Inc. (LZB) is a highly resilient, vertically integrated furniture manufacturer and retailer executing year 3 of its 5-year 'Century Vision' strategic plan. The company has demonstrated impressive execution by growing its top-line slightly and expanding margins in one of the most challenging housing markets in 30 years. Backed by a debt-free balance sheet with over $300 million in cash, La-Z-Boy is aggressively expanding its high-margin company-owned retail footprint (adding 15 net new stores and acquiring 15 independent stores in FY2026). However, near-term demand remains choppy and heavily dependent on macroeconomic factors outside management's control, specifically Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and housing turnover. At ~16x trailing earnings, the stock is fairly valued, making it a solid hold for income-focused investors who can collect a growing dividend while waiting for a cyclical housing recovery to unlock significant operating leverage. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$46.00 Mean target$46.00 High · most bullish analyst$46.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $46.00 Persistent inflation and elevated interest rates lead to a prolonged consumer discretionary slowdown. Same-store sales declines deepen, and wholesale volumes contract further. Joybird continues to drag on profitability, requiring additional goodwill write-downs. Rising raw material costs (such as polyurethane foam) and distribution expenses compress margins, offsetting the benefits of the retail expansion and pushing adjusted operating margins back toward mid-single digits. Base CaseCentral scenario $46.00 Matches the consensus meanThe housing market remains sluggish with high interest rates capping near-term demand. La-Z-Boy continues to outperform the broader contracting industry through organic market share gains, retail store expansion (adding ~10 new stores annually), and the realization of 75-100 bps of margin expansion from strategic actions (such as the divestiture of non-core casegoods and U.K. supply chain optimization). Revenue grows at a low-single-digit rate, and the company maintains its strong cash generation to support steady dividend increases and share buybacks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $46.00 A swift decline in interest rates triggers a rapid recovery in existing-home sales and housing turnover. This cyclical unlock unleashes massive pent-up demand for home furnishings. La-Z-Boy, with its expanded company-owned retail network (now 61% of its total store footprint) and vertically integrated manufacturing, captures outsized market share. Operating leverage kicks in, driving consolidated adjusted operating margins into double-digits ahead of schedule and accelerating EPS growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |