Kyivstar Group Ltd Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryTelecom Services Beta (adjusted)1.01 Intrinsic Value $26.93median of 6 methods · middle span $13-$225based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $12.41Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 117% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+117%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.9B Enterprise Value $2.7B Shares Outstanding 216.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Kyivstar Group Ltd. represents a unique, high-growth digital operator opportunity as the first Ukrainian company listed on a U.S. stock exchange (Nasdaq: KYIV). Despite operating under a challenging wartime environment, the company has demonstrated remarkable operational resilience, delivering strong double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth. Kyivstar is successfully transitioning from a traditional telecom provider into a diversified digital ecosystem. This transformation is accelerated by the strategic acquisitions of Uklon (mobility), Helsi and Tabletki.ua (e-health), alongside a pioneering satellite-to-mobile partnership with SpaceX's Starlink. Backed by its parent company VEON, Kyivstar's robust cash flows, strong balance sheet, and proactive energy-resilience investments position it to lead Ukraine's digital future and capture substantial upside during the nation's post-war reconstruction. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$15.03 Mean target$17.96 High · most bullish analyst$20.05 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case is defined by an escalation of the military conflict, resulting in severe, systemic damage to Ukraine's energy grid and telecommunications infrastructure. Prolonged power outages and heightened security risks increase operational costs and capital expenditure requirements for network maintenance. Severe macroeconomic instability and sharp hryvnia devaluation compress USD-denominated earnings and delay the integration of digital acquisitions. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes continued execution of Kyivstar's digital operator strategy, with steady ARPU growth offsetting minor mobile subscriber declines. The successful integration of Tabletki.ua and Uklon drives digital services to exceed 20% of total revenue. Network operations remain stable supported by proactive investments in backup power and solar energy. Revenue grows at a double-digit rate in local currency, and EBITDA margins remain healthy above 50%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |