Kura Oncology Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Kura Oncology Inc

KURANASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.58

Intrinsic Value $12.72median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $10.65Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $947.4M

Enterprise Value $887M

Shares Outstanding 88.9M diluted

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Kura Oncology is transitioning from a clinical-stage biotech to a commercial-stage precision oncology leader. The successful launch of KOMZIFTI (ziftomenib) in relapsed/refractory NPM1-mutant AML, capturing a 40% market share in new patient starts during its first full quarter, validates the commercial viability of its pipeline. Backed by a robust cash position of $580.8 million and a strategic collaboration with Kyowa Kirin, Kura is well-funded to advance ziftomenib as a foundational backbone therapy across the AML treatment continuum, while expanding its solid tumor pipeline with darlifarnib.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$15.00

Mean target$32.00

High · most bullish analyst$76.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$15.0015%

KOMZIFTI commercial adoption slows due to intense competition or payer access hurdles. Clinical trials for ziftomenib combinations encounter safety signals (e.g., severe differentiation syndrome) or fail to show meaningful durability, delaying frontline registration. High R&D cash burn accelerates the need for dilutive capital raises before reaching pivotal Phase 3 readouts.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$32.0060%

Matches the consensus mean

KOMZIFTI continues its steady commercial ramp in relapsed/refractory AML, meeting product revenue expectations. Frontline combination trials progress on schedule, with positive long-term durability data supporting the ongoing Phase 3 registrational program. The cash runway remains sufficient to fund operations through key clinical milestones in 2028.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$76.0025%

KOMZIFTI achieves rapid market penetration and establishes itself as the leading therapy in relapsed/refractory NPM1-mutant AML. Frontline combination trials (KOMET-007 and KOMET-017) demonstrate superior efficacy and safety, accelerating regulatory approvals and expanding the addressable market. Darlifarnib successfully demonstrates synergistic efficacy in KRAS-mutant solid tumors, unlocking a multi-billion dollar market opportunity.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong commercial debut for KOMZIFTI, generating $5.8 million in its first full quarter and capturing 40% of new patient starts.
Robust balance sheet with $580.8 million in cash and short-term investments, supplemented by $180 million in anticipated collaboration payments, extending runway into 2028.
Encouraging long-term clinical data for ziftomenib in combination with intensive chemotherapy (7+3), showing high response rates and deep MRD negativity in frontline AML.
Promising early clinical activity for darlifarnib (FTI) in combination with adagrasib across KRAS-mutant solid tumors, including pancreatic and lung cancers.

Key Investment Risks

High clinical development risk inherent in late-stage oncology trials, where safety or efficacy hurdles can halt programs.
Commercial execution risk in a highly competitive oncology landscape, particularly against direct mechanism rivals in menin inhibition.
Substantial cash burn driven by expanding late-stage clinical trials and commercialization activities.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of the Phase 3 KOMET-017 trial to meet its primary efficacy endpoints.
Emergence of severe, unmanageable toxicities or safety signals in ziftomenib combination trials.
A significant and sustained slowdown in KOMZIFTI commercial revenue growth or loss of payer coverage.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.