Krystal Biotech Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.69 Intrinsic Value $377.63median of 6 methods · middle span $208-$1,886based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $325.31Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.6B Enterprise Value $9.2B Shares Outstanding 30.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Krystal combines a rapidly growing, high-margin commercial gene therapy with substantial liquidity and several potentially value-creating clinical programs. Second-quarter 2026 global VYJUVEK revenue increased 24% year over year to $119.2 million at a 95% gross margin, while commercial reach and international expansion continued. The counterweight is material dependence on one marketed product and several binary clinical, regulatory, reimbursement, and launch milestones. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$284.00 Mean target$385.00 High · most bullish analyst$474.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $284.0019% VYJUVEK growth slows materially as the initial launch curve matures or reimbursement and international pricing take longer than expected, while one or more important clinical programs misses an endpoint, is delayed, or requires additional development. Product concentration would magnify the valuation effect of such setbacks. Base CaseCentral scenario $385.0058% Matches the consensus meanVYJUVEK remains a durable, high-margin growth product, although growth moderates and European pricing discussions take time. Pipeline programs advance broadly on schedule, but their ultimate commercial contribution remains uncertain. Bull CaseUpside scenario $474.0023% VYJUVEK sustains strong growth as U.S. utilization deepens and launches in additional European markets proceed, while KB803 reports positive registrational data and KB407, KB111, or KB707 provides additional clinical validation of the platform. This would strengthen the transition from a single-product company toward a multi-product genetic-medicines franchise. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |