Kroger Co Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryFood Retail Beta (adjusted)0.61 Intrinsic Value $43.97median of 6 methods · middle span $23-$47based on filings through 23 May 2026 Market Price $59.48Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $35.1B Enterprise Value $47.6B Shares Outstanding 655M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Kroger entered the second quarter with reaffirmed FY2026 guidance, Q1 adjusted EPS growth, 19% adjusted eCommerce growth and more than 20% growth in Kroger Precision Marketing profit. The balanced view reflects those strengths against only 1.0% adjusted identical-sales growth, a 30-basis-point decline in reported gross margin, higher transportation and labor-related costs, and continuing price investment. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$58.00 Mean target$70.50 High · most bullish analyst$86.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $58.0023% Identical sales fall below guidance as deflation and cautious consumer behavior outweigh traffic initiatives, while transportation, wage and price-investment pressure produce further margin deterioration and adjusted EPS falls below the guided range. Base CaseCentral scenario $70.5058% Matches the consensus meanIdentical sales remain within the 1.0%-2.0% FY2026 range, adjusted EPS remains within $5.10-$5.30, and eCommerce profitability improves while price investment and operating-cost pressure constrain margin expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $86.0019% Adjusted eCommerce and Kroger Precision Marketing maintain strong growth, improved eCommerce profitability and sourcing benefits increasingly offset transportation, wage and price-investment pressure, and FY2026 results reach the upper end of Kroger's reaffirmed guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |