Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)1.07 Intrinsic Value $18.81median of 4 methods · middle span $18-$20based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $42.82Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 56% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-56%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8B Enterprise Value $6.6B Shares Outstanding 193.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Kratos has strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 30.5% year over year and 19.1% organically, last-twelve-month book-to-bill reached 1.3, consolidated backlog was $2.084 billion, and the opportunity pipeline was $15.0 billion. Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $1.750-$1.810 billion and guided to $173-$176 million of adjusted EBITDA. The case is supported by expanding demand across hypersonics, propulsion, C5ISR, space, microwave electronics, and unmanned systems, including continuing Valkyrie mission validation and new production awards. The principal offsets are heavy capacity and working-capital investment, forecast negative free cash flow, program and funding timing, supply-chain and hiring constraints, and the execution risk inherent in rapidly scaling production. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$60.00 Mean target$105.62 High · most bullish analyst$150.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $60.0020% Contract timing, government funding, supply-chain constraints, hiring needs, foreign-exchange pressure, or production-ramp difficulties push revenue or adjusted EBITDA below guidance; book-to-bill falls below 1.0; and investment requirements exceed the guided range without timely backlog conversion. Base CaseCentral scenario $105.6250% Matches the consensus meanRevenue and adjusted EBITDA finish within management's $1.750-$1.810 billion and $173-$176 million guidance ranges, backlog remains above $2.0 billion, and margin improvement continues while elevated investment constrains free cash flow. Bull CaseUpside scenario $150.0030% Kratos reaches the upper end of FY2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, sustains book-to-bill near or above the reported 1.3 level, converts more of its $15.0 billion opportunity pipeline, and advances Valkyrie, hypersonic, rocket-motor, and small-engine production ramps. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |