Kraft Heinz Co Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPackaged Foods & Meats Beta (adjusted)0.39 Intrinsic Value $28.91median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $22.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $26.6B Enterprise Value $41.8B Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Kraft Heinz presents a balanced operational setup. Second-quarter organic sales and adjusted profit remained under pressure, but results exceeded management expectations in several channels, emerging-market organic sales grew 8.5%, year-to-date free cash flow rose 10.3%, and management improved its organic-sales outlook. These positives are offset by a 2.6-percentage-point volume/mix decline, an 18.4% reduction in adjusted operating income, substantial non-cash impairments, and FY2026 guidance that still anticipates declining sales and adjusted operating profit. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$19.00 Mean target$25.03 High · most bullish analyst$40.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $19.0022% Volume/mix weakness persists, organic sales fall below the updated guidance floor, and inflation, logistics costs, advertising investment, or further impairment pressure prevent earnings stabilization. Adjusted EPS falls below $2.03 and cash conversion weakens, increasing concern about the durability of shareholder distributions. Base CaseCentral scenario $25.0358% Matches the consensus meanOrganic sales finish within the updated decline range of 0.5% to 2.0%, adjusted EPS remains within $2.03 to $2.09, and free cash flow conversion remains near 110%. Brand investment supports stabilization but does not immediately reverse North American volume weakness. Bull CaseUpside scenario $40.0020% Incremental brand investment of approximately $700 million supports better volume trends entering 2027, emerging markets maintain positive volume-led growth, and organic sales finish near the favorable end of updated guidance. Strong cash conversion and continued quarterly dividends provide additional support while operating momentum improves. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |