Kontoor Brands Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryApparel Manufacturing Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $73.76median of 6 methods · middle span $64-$172based on filings through 4 Jul 2026 Market Price $63.52Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.5B Enterprise Value $4.6B Shares Outstanding 55.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Kontoor Brands is undergoing a highly accretive portfolio transformation. By divesting its slower-growing Lee denim brand to Authentic Brands Group for up to $1 billion (~10x 2026E adjusted EBITDA) and focusing its capital on the high-margin, fast-growing Helly Hansen brand and the resilient Wrangler brand, the company is structurally improving its unit economics. The proceeds from the divestiture will fund a massive $750 million share repurchase program and voluntary debt reduction, driving significant long-term earnings accretion and valuation multiple expansion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$50.00 Mean target$96.90 High · most bullish analyst$136.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $50.0015% U.S. wholesale denim channels experience severe promotional pressure and inventory destocking, dragging down Wrangler's growth. The integration of Helly Hansen faces execution hurdles in North America, and the company fails to fully mitigate the stranded overhead costs from the Lee divestiture, leading to margin compression. Base CaseCentral scenario $96.9060% Matches the consensus meanThe Lee divestiture closes successfully in 2H 2026, with overhead costs successfully mitigated. Wrangler maintains stable low-single-digit growth, and Helly Hansen continues its high-single-digit growth trajectory. Share repurchases and debt paydowns proceed as planned, supporting steady margin expansion and solid EPS growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $136.0025% Helly Hansen's international expansion (especially in China and North America) accelerates beyond expectations, driving double-digit organic growth. Project Jeanius cost savings exceed $100 million in 2026, pushing operating margins toward the mid-teens. The $750 million buyback program is executed rapidly, significantly reducing share count and driving EPS well above consensus. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |