Kolibri Global Energy Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)1.32 Intrinsic Value $3.86median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $6.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 37% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $219.9M Enterprise Value $266.6M Shares Outstanding 35.9M diluted Next Earnings Date13 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (KGEI) represents a compelling small-cap E&P investment opportunity characterized by high-margin, oil-weighted production growth in the Tishomingo Field (Caney Shale) of Oklahoma. The company has demonstrated strong operational execution, achieving record quarterly revenues and EBITDA in Q1 2026. With a low leverage profile, expanding credit facility, and highly efficient drilling operations (reducing lateral drilling times to 10-12 days), Kolibri is well-positioned to scale production organically while returning capital to shareholders through buybacks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.00 Mean target$8.00 High · most bullish analyst$8.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A sharp decline in global crude oil prices (WTI falling below $65/bbl) compresses operating netbacks and reduces cash flow. The company is forced to scale back its drilling program to conserve liquidity, resulting in flat or declining year-over-year production. High fixed costs and a working capital deficit pressure the balance sheet, limiting capital return initiatives. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes its 2026 drilling program, completing at least three new Caney wells. Average production meets the guidance range of 4,400 to 4,800 BOEPD, supported by stable WTI prices averaging around $74/bbl. Operating netbacks remain high due to low operating expenses, and net debt is successfully managed down to the target range of $25 to $30 million by year-end. Bull CaseUpside scenario Kolibri Global Energy is a highly efficient, low-cost operator in the Caney Shale of the Tishomingo field in Oklahoma, maintaining a robust adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 75%. The company operates with low leverage (net debt/EBITDA under 1x), providing significant financial flexibility. Furthermore, its active hedging program covering roughly half of projected output helps stabilize cash flows against oil price volatility, while an ongoing share repurchase program and new well development support substantial upside potential. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |