Kodiak Gas Services Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services Beta (adjusted)0.93 Intrinsic Value $56.59median of 6 methods · middle span $41-$80based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $53.56Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.4B Enterprise Value $8B Shares Outstanding 90.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) presents a compelling investment opportunity characterized by a highly stable, high-margin core compression business and a rapidly expanding distributed power segment. The core contract compression business operates at an industry-leading 98% utilization rate with record adjusted gross margins of 70.6%, supported by long-term, fixed-fee contracts that provide strong cash flow visibility. The strategic acquisition of Distributed Power Solutions (DPS) in early 2026 positions KGS to capture massive demand from digital infrastructure and data centers seeking rapid, behind-the-meter power solutions. While the expansion is capital-intensive, the combination of defensive, inflation-protected cash flows and a high-growth power runway justifies a premium valuation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$69.00 Mean target$82.73 High · most bullish analyst$93.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Execution delays or supply chain bottlenecks disrupt the deployment of the distributed power assets, leading to stranded capital and lower-than-expected EBITDA contributions. High capital expenditure requirements strain the balance sheet, pushing leverage above the 3.6x level. A broader slowdown in Permian Basin drilling activity reduces incremental demand for natural gas takeaway, softening compression pricing power. Base CaseCentral scenario The core compression business maintains utilization above 97% and pricing power persists due to tight market capacity (lead times >180 weeks). The newly launched Power Infrastructure segment successfully deploys 61 MW of capacity in 2026 and scales toward its target of 300-500 MW of annual additions. Adjusted EBITDA meets the raised FY 2026 guidance of $820 million to $860 million, and leverage remains within the target corridor of 3.0x to 3.5x. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |