KNOT Offshore Partners LP Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Storage & Transportation Beta (adjusted)0.30 Intrinsic Value $6.95median of 4 methods · middle span $4-$10based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $10.59Price as of 2 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 34% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $365.9M Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 34.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend27 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary KNOT Offshore Partners LP (KNOP) operates as a leading provider of shuttle tankers under long-term, fixed-rate charters, offering stable maritime infrastructure cash flows. While the partnership demonstrated operational resilience in Q1 2026 with a turnaround to positive net income and high fleet utilization, it remains constrained by a heavy debt load, upcoming refinancing hurdles, and an aging fleet. The termination of the unsolicited $10 buyout offer from sponsor Knutsen NYK removes a near-term floor but shifts focus back to organic distribution growth and fleet rejuvenation. A neutral view is warranted as the partnership balances debt reduction with a gradual, long-term recovery in distributions. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$14.00 Mean target$14.50 High · most bullish analyst$15.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Refinancing of upcoming debt occurs at significantly higher interest rates, compressing distributable cash flow. Unplanned dry-dockings or operational off-hire periods reduce fleet utilization, forcing management to pause distribution increases to preserve liquidity. Base CaseCentral scenario The partnership maintains high fleet utilization (above 95% scheduled) and successfully refinances its upcoming 2026 debt maturities. Cash flows remain stable due to robust charter coverage (97% for H2 2026 and 81% for 2027), allowing for modest, gradual increases in quarterly distributions from the current $0.05 level. Bull CaseUpside scenario KNOT Offshore Partners LP (KNOP) represents a compelling turnaround play as the sole U.S. exchange-listed shuttle tanker pure play. The bull case is supported by a cyclical recovery in the offshore oil industry, particularly in Brazil and the North Sea, driving demand for shuttle tankers. Strengthening market conditions and healthy cash flows are expected to facilitate additional vessel dropdowns from its parent company, Knutsen NYK Offshore Tankers AS, which will improve profitability and cash generation. Furthermore, the partnership's reinstatement of its quarterly distribution signals a return of capital market access and growing management confidence, while its long-term fixed-rate contracts provide highly visible, pipeline-like cash flows. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |