Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryTrucking Beta (adjusted)1.12 Intrinsic Value $47.43median of 6 methods · middle span $16-$56based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $65.41Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.6B Enterprise Value $12.2B Shares Outstanding 163.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Knight-Swift entered the second half of 2026 with materially stronger earnings and operating efficiency: Q2 adjusted EPS increased to $0.63 from $0.35, while the consolidated adjusted operating ratio improved to 91.4%. Management's Q3 adjusted-EPS guidance of $0.71-$0.77 supports continued recovery, but the August 31 intraday share price of $66.69 already discounts a meaningful portion of that improvement. The prior Q1 guidance reduction demonstrates continued exposure to freight cyclicality, weather, fuel-price movements, and claims volatility. A Hold rating therefore balances improving fundamentals and platform diversification against execution sensitivity and limited base-case appreciation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$57.00 Mean target$88.63 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $57.0025% Freight recovery stalls or Q1-type claims, weather, and fuel pressures recur, causing adjusted EPS to fall below the Q3 guidance floor and reversing part of the Q2 operating-ratio improvement. Base CaseCentral scenario $88.6357% Matches the consensus meanManagement delivers within its $0.71-$0.77 Q3 adjusted-EPS range, freight conditions improve gradually, and the adjusted operating ratio remains near the low-90% area. Bull CaseUpside scenario $100.0018% A stronger freight upcycle, sustained pricing gains, and operating leverage carry adjusted EPS above the Q3 guidance range and preserve the Q2 margin improvement. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |