Kinross Gold Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Kinross Gold Corp

KToronto Stock Exchange

SectorMaterials

IndustryGold

Beta (adjusted)1.32

Intrinsic Value $47.10median of 6 methods · middle span $20-$94based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $24.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 96% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+96%)

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Market Cap $28.5B

Enterprise Value $27.5B

Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Kinross enters the second half of 2026 with production tracking toward its 2.0-million-ounce objective, substantial free-cash-flow generation, a $1.9 billion net-cash position and a newly upgraded BBB credit rating. The principal upside is successful de-risking of Great Bear and Lobo-Marte while existing operations preserve margins. The counterweight is elevated unit costs, a capital-intensive development program and material sensitivity to gold prices, currencies, royalties, fuel and project permitting.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$9.30

Mean target$35.93

High · most bullish analyst$54.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$9.3018%

Production finishes below the lower end of guidance, AISC exceeds the upper end, or capital spending overruns as lower grades, fuel, labour, royalties and development execution pressure cash generation. Delays in Great Bear or Lobo-Marte permitting would defer expected portfolio renewal and increase the market's reliance on prevailing gold prices and existing-mine performance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$35.9358%

Matches the consensus mean

Kinross finishes 2026 within its production, AISC and capital guidance ranges. Strong cash generation and the net-cash balance sheet support the stated objective of returning 40% of 2026 free cash flow while Great Bear, Round Mountain Phase X, Curlew and Redbird advance. Lobo-Marte remains a longer-dated option rather than a near-term earnings contributor.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$54.0024%

Kinross meets or exceeds production guidance while costs move toward the guidance midpoint, preserving strong margins and funding both shareholder returns and development internally. Great Bear permitting, engineering and underground exploration advance without material delay, while Lobo-Marte continues through Chilean permitting and retains its projected low-cost economics.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong financial flexibility: Kinross reported $1.9 billion of net cash and approximately $4.4 billion of liquidity at June 30, 2026, followed by an upgrade to BBB with a stable outlook.
Meaningful internal growth options: Great Bear surface construction was approximately 93% complete, while Lobo-Marte was presented as a roughly 350,000-ounce-per-year project with approximately $1,000-per-ounce AISC during steady-state operations.
Explicit shareholder-return framework: Kinross stated that it remained on track to return 40% of 2026 free cash flow and had returned approximately $615 million year-to-date through July 29.

Key Investment Risks

Cost pressure remains material: first-half attributable AISC was $1,777 per gold-equivalent ounce versus full-year guidance of $1,730 plus or minus 5%, while management identified fuel, royalties and labour among cost drivers.
The development pipeline carries permitting and execution risk, including Great Bear's federal and provincial processes and Lobo-Marte's Chilean environmental review and approximately $1.8 billion initial-capital estimate.
Results remain highly exposed to gold prices, currencies, fuel, royalties, grades and recoveries; Kinross's forward-looking disclosures identify these variables as potentially material sources of variance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.