Kinder Morgan Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Storage & Transportation Beta (adjusted)0.71 Intrinsic Value $24.82median of 6 methods · middle span $20-$50based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $30.53Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $68B Enterprise Value $100.1B Shares Outstanding 2.2B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Kinder Morgan entered the second half of 2026 with record second-quarter adjusted EBITDA, a raised full-year outlook, leverage at the low end of its target range and a large, predominantly natural-gas project backlog. The August 2026 Western Gateway final investment decision adds a long-duration, take-or-pay growth opportunity outside natural gas. These strengths are balanced by execution and permitting exposure across a substantial capital program, weakness in reported refined-products and crude volumes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$31.00 Mean target$35.81 High · most bullish analyst$43.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $31.0019% Weather-related outperformance fades, refined-products and crude-volume weakness persists, and permitting, construction or customer-timing delays reduce backlog conversion. Higher capital requirements or weaker cash generation push leverage above management's target range, while Western Gateway experiences schedule or cost pressure before its targeted 2029 completion. Base CaseCentral scenario $35.8158% Matches the consensus meanKinder Morgan delivers approximately the raised 2026 outlook, maintains leverage within its 3.5x-4.5x range and converts its reported $9.6 billion backlog into incremental contracted earnings, with normal project timing variability. Western Gateway advances through permitting and engineering without materially changing near-term results. Bull CaseUpside scenario $43.0023% Outperformance persists beyond the weather-assisted first half, natural-gas transportation and gathering demand remain strong, and backlog projects enter service on schedule near the disclosed aggregate 5.6x first-full-year project EBITDA multiple. Western Gateway progresses toward its 2029 target under primarily 10-year take-or-pay contracts, while leverage remains near 3.6x and internally generated cash flow continues to fund expansion and dividend growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |