Kimco Realty Corp Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Retail Beta (adjusted)0.96 Intrinsic Value $19.47median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $22.21Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.9B Enterprise Value $21.9B Shares Outstanding 671.3M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Kimco offers a favorable income-and-growth profile at the August 28 closing price of $23.78. Second-quarter execution was strong: FFO per diluted share increased 4.5% to $0.46, same-property NOI grew 3.5%, portfolio occupancy matched its 96.4% record, small-shop occupancy reached 92.9%, and comparable new-lease cash spreads were 40.4%. Management raised full-year FFO guidance to $1.83-$1.84 and increased the quarterly dividend to $0.28. The $75 million of future annual base rent represented by signed but not-yet-commenced leases provides a visible internal-growth pipeline. The principal offsets are tenant-credit risk, capital-redeployment execution, and refinancing exposure. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$24.00 Mean target$26.97 High · most bullish analyst$31.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $24.0017% Tenant failures push credit losses above guidance, occupancy falls below 95%, leasing spreads weaken, or elevated capital costs reduce the value created by acquisitions and redevelopment. Under this scenario, investors demand a larger risk discount despite the dividend. Base CaseCentral scenario $26.9758% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes full-year FFO lands within the company's $1.83-$1.84 outlook, same-property NOI remains within 3.0%-3.5%, occupancy stays around 96%, and credit losses remain within the 0.55%-0.75% outlook. Bull CaseUpside scenario $31.0025% Occupancy remains near record levels, the signed-lease pipeline converts into rent without material delays, leasing spreads remain strong, and same-property NOI stays at or above the upper end of the 3.0%-3.5% outlook. Successful reinvestment of disposition proceeds into higher-growth grocery-anchored assets supports continued FFO and dividend growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |