Kimberly-Clark Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Kimberly-Clark Corp

KMBNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryHousehold Products

Beta (adjusted)0.50

Intrinsic Value $113.27median of 6 methods · middle span $109-$129based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $94.34Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $31.4B

Enterprise Value $36.9B

Shares Outstanding 333.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Kimberly-Clark's first-half results demonstrate meaningful productivity and margin progress, with adjusted operating profit and adjusted EPS from continuing operations growing despite weak consolidated organic sales and several discrete disruptions. The investment case is nevertheless unusually dependent on execution of the pending Kenvue acquisition, which remains subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to close by year-end. The combination offers a broader health-and-wellness portfolio and substantial announced synergies, but it also introduces financing, integration and realization risk while Kimberly-Clark's updated 2026 organic-sales outlook sits approximately one percentage point below category growth. A Hold stance balances the resilient core franchise, improving profitability and long dividend record against downgraded near-term expectations and transaction uncertainty.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$90.00

Mean target$118.60

High · most bullish analyst$162.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$90.0024%

The China disruption persists or spreads, consolidated organic sales fall more than one percentage point behind category growth, and pricing investments or supply-chain spending offset productivity gains. Regulatory delays, financing pressure or integration complexity impede the Kenvue transaction or reduce confidence in the timing and amount of announced synergies.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$118.6057%

Matches the consensus mean

The core business broadly delivers the updated 2026 outlook: organic sales remain below category growth while adjusted operating profit grows at a mid-single-digit constant-currency rate and adjusted EPS from continuing operations grows at a high-single-digit rate. The Kenvue acquisition closes near year-end, but investors require evidence of integration progress before assigning full value to the announced synergies.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$162.0019%

The Kenvue transaction closes by year-end, integration begins without material disruption, and Kimberly-Clark's commercial and productivity playbook supports realization of the announced $2.1 billion run-rate synergy opportunity. The China disruption subsides, International Personal Care resumes stronger volume-plus-mix growth, and the core business enters 2027 with improved margins and sustained innovation momentum.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter adjusted gross margin increased 190 basis points to 38.8%, while adjusted operating profit rose 6.2%, demonstrating strong productivity and operating leverage.
International Personal Care delivered 2.5% year-to-date organic-sales growth and 12.5% year-to-date operating-profit growth despite the China disruption.
The proposed Kenvue combination is expected to create a health-and-wellness company with approximately $32 billion of annual net revenue and $2.1 billion of anticipated run-rate synergies, net of reinvestment.
Kimberly-Clark has paid dividends for 92 consecutive years and increased its dividend for 54 consecutive years.

Key Investment Risks

The August 2026 outlook reduced expected organic-sales performance to approximately one percentage point below category growth and lowered adjusted operating-profit and adjusted EPS growth expectations from earlier guidance.
False quality allegations circulated through social media materially reduced China diaper sales and are expected to affect near-term sales and profit further.
The Kenvue acquisition remains subject to regulatory approvals and carries financing, integration, execution and synergy-realization risk.
The proposed transaction requires approximately $2.5 billion of cash costs to achieve synergies, while pricing investments, tariffs, cost inflation and supply-chain spending may constrain benefits.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.