Keycorp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Keycorp

KEYNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)1.02

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $20.05Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $21.4B

Enterprise Value $30.7B

Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

KeyCorp entered the second half of 2026 with improving revenue, net-interest-income and margin trends, positive operating leverage, commercial loan growth and substantial capital-return capacity. These positives are balanced by rising nonperforming loans, higher net charge-offs, a lower sequential CET1 ratio and fee-line volatility. With KEY closing at $21.91 on August 28, 2026, the scenario-weighted price outcome offers insufficient appreciation to support a Buy despite the dividend, making Hold appropriate pending evidence that credit normalization remains contained and management closes the gap to its greater-than-15% ROTCE objective.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$22.00

Mean target$26.02

High · most bullish analyst$43.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$22.0025%

Further increases in nonperforming loans and charge-offs, weaker fee income or failure to preserve capital and positive operating leverage could push the shares toward the lower end of the official 52-week range.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$26.0255%

Matches the consensus mean

Revenue and net interest income continue growing, but credit costs and expense investment limit rerating. The target uses KeyCorp's $23.05 second-quarter 2026 period-end market price as a conservative normalization level.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$43.0020%

Sustained net-interest-margin expansion, continued C&I growth, strong wealth and payments activity, execution of the repurchase authorization and progress toward greater than 15% ROTCE could return KEY to the upper end of its official 52-week trading range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 taxable-equivalent revenue increased 6.7% year over year, net interest income increased 9.4%, and net interest margin expanded 23 basis points to 2.89%.
Average C&I loans increased 11.7% year over year, while assets under management reached a record $74.2 billion and increased 15.5%.
KeyCorp repurchased $341 million of common shares in 2Q26, and its board authorized a new repurchase program of up to $3.0 billion.

Key Investment Risks

Nonperforming loans increased to 0.73% of portfolio loans from 0.62% sequentially, while the net charge-off ratio increased to 0.42% from 0.38%.
Estimated CET1 declined to 11.2% from 11.4% sequentially as KeyCorp returned capital through repurchases.
Fee performance remains uneven: investment-banking and debt-placement fees declined 14.2% sequentially, and commercial-mortgage-servicing fees declined 30.0% year over year.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.