Keros Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Keros Therapeutics Inc

KROSNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $11.26Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $223.3M

Enterprise Value −$34.4M

Shares Outstanding 19.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Keros Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company specializing in modulating the TGF-beta protein superfamily to treat hematologic and neuromuscular disorders. The company's investment thesis is anchored by its strong capital position, which provides a cash runway into the first half of 2028, and its strategic partnership with Takeda Pharmaceuticals. Takeda's decision to advance elritercept (KER-050) into a pivotal Phase 3 trial for anemia in myelofibrosis significantly de-risks development costs while preserving substantial commercial upside. Meanwhile, Keros is focusing its internal resources on advancing its wholly owned lead candidate, rinvatercept (KER-065), into Phase 2 trials for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Despite near-term volatility and a lack of product revenue, the sharp discount in the stock price relative to consensus analyst targets presents an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$16.00

Mean target$21.83

High · most bullish analyst$30.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$11.0020%

Rinvatercept's Phase 2 trials encounter enrollment delays or safety concerns, particularly regarding hemoglobin management. Takeda's Phase 3 trial for elritercept experiences setbacks or fails to meet primary endpoints, reducing the likelihood of future milestone payments. Elevated cash burn accelerates the need for dilutive capital raises before 2028, depressing the stock price.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$20.2050%

Keros successfully initiates and enrolls patients in the Phase 2 trials for rinvatercept in DMD and ALS, with initial safety and biomarker data in 1H 2027 meeting expectations. Takeda begins the Phase 3 trial for elritercept on schedule. The company maintains disciplined spending, keeping its cash runway intact through 2028. The stock recovers toward historical averages as clinical milestones are achieved.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$25.0030%

Takeda successfully executes the Phase 3 trial for elritercept in myelofibrosis, triggering substantial milestone payments and establishing a clear path to commercialization. Concurrently, rinvatercept's Phase 2 trials in DMD and ALS demonstrate robust safety, biomarker improvements, and early functional efficacy, positioning Keros as a leader in neuromuscular disease therapies. Strong clinical execution and potential expansion into pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) drive significant upward valuation adjustments.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong cash position of $281.5 million as of March 31, 2026, providing a solid runway into the first half of 2028.
Strategic partnership with Takeda for elritercept de-risks late-stage clinical development costs while retaining commercial upside.
Wholly owned lead candidate rinvatercept (KER-065) is entering Phase 2 trials for high-value indications (DMD and ALS) with FDA orphan drug designation already secured for DMD.
Specialized expertise in TGF-beta biology provides a robust platform for targeting diverse hematologic and musculoskeletal disorders.

Key Investment Risks

Clinical development risk: The company's valuation is heavily dependent on binary clinical trial outcomes for rinvatercept and elritercept.
No commercial product revenue: Keros is pre-commercial and relies entirely on partnerships or future capital raises to fund operations.
Concentration risk: The pipeline is highly concentrated in a small number of clinical-stage assets.
Competition: Keros faces intense competition from established pharmaceutical giants like Merck and Bristol Myers Squibb in the TGF-beta space.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of elritercept to meet primary endpoints in Takeda's planned Phase 3 trial for anemia in myelofibrosis.
Severe adverse safety events or failure to demonstrate biomarker efficacy in rinvatercept's Phase 2 trials for DMD or ALS.
Significant acceleration in cash burn that shortens the projected cash runway to well before the first half of 2028.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.