Kenvue Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPersonal Care Products Beta (adjusted)0.62 Intrinsic Value $19.80median of 6 methods · middle span $19-$31based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $17.22Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $33.1B Shares Outstanding 1.9B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Kenvue is primarily an event-driven holding pending its cash-and-stock acquisition by Kimberly-Clark rather than a conventional standalone valuation case. Shareholders approved the transaction, the U.S. antitrust waiting period expired, and closing is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, but foreign regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions remain outstanding. Operating performance is improving: second-quarter organic sales increased 1.6%, all three segments recorded organic growth, and adjusted diluted EPS increased to $0.31. These positives are balanced by modest underlying growth, lower adjusted gross and operating margins, absent forward guidance, and execution risk around restructuring and the transaction. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$18.00 Mean target$19.50 High · most bullish analyst$23.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $18.0015% Foreign regulatory review delays closing, transaction uncertainty disrupts execution, or organic growth returns to contraction while margins remain pressured by inflation, tariffs, foreign exchange, and restructuring. The $21.01 figure is retained solely as the common official transaction reference rather than an estimate of Kenvue's value if the merger fails. Base CaseCentral scenario $19.5065% Matches the consensus meanThe shareholder-approved acquisition closes in the fourth quarter after remaining foreign regulatory approvals, with Kenvue continuing low-single-digit organic growth until closing. Actual consideration at closing will vary with Kimberly-Clark's share price. Bull CaseUpside scenario $23.0020% The transaction closes on schedule in the fourth quarter, Kenvue sustains broad-based organic growth, and improving brand execution supports the value of the Kimberly-Clark stock component. The price target uses the only explicit primary-source per-share transaction benchmark located, the $21.01 announcement-date consideration; it is not a current executable offer value because the stock component fluctuates. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |