Kemper Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty Beta (adjusted)1.03 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $25.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.5B Enterprise Value $2.4B Shares Outstanding 56.8M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Kemper Corporation is currently undergoing a critical operational turnaround under newly appointed CEO Stephen J. McAnena (effective June 1, 2026). The company's financial performance has been heavily pressured by elevated loss costs in its California non-standard auto book, driven by regulatory changes and increased minimum liability limits. While Q1 2026 results showed a disappointing net loss of $1.7 million, the company is actively pursuing rate increases, non-rate underwriting actions, and a $60 million cost-savings program. At a price-to-book ratio of approximately 0.56x, the stock offers significant asset-backed downside protection and represents a compelling turnaround play, but investors should remain on the sidelines until underwriting profitability stabilizes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$24.00 Mean target$49.33 High · most bullish analyst$81.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects persistent regulatory hurdles in obtaining necessary rate increases in California, combined with ongoing claims severity inflation. Underwriting losses continue to drag down consolidated earnings, leading to further book value erosion and potential capital adequacy concerns that could pressure the dividend. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that newly appointed CEO Stephen J. McAnena successfully stabilizes the California specialty auto book through rate increases and underwriting restrictions. Underwriting margins gradually recover toward a combined ratio of 98-99% by late 2027, and the $60 million cost-savings program is fully realized. This drives a strong recovery in EPS toward $4.48 in 2027, allowing the stock to re-rate closer to its historical book value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |