Kearny Financial Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.76 Intrinsic Value $6.30median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $9.20Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $581.2M Enterprise Value $1.6B Shares Outstanding 63.2M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Kearny Financial Corp. (KRNY) is navigating a recovery phase following severe margin compression and balance sheet restructuring in recent years. The bank has demonstrated six consecutive quarters of net interest margin (NIM) expansion, reaching 2.21% in Q3 Fiscal 2026, driven by loan repricing and declining funding costs. While asset quality remains a core strength with annualized net charge-offs at just 0.04%, the high dividend payout ratio and historical revenue volatility warrant a cautious approach. Trading at a discount to tangible book value, the stock offers attractive yield and potential M&A optionality, making it a solid Hold. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.50 Mean target$10.50 High · most bullish analyst$10.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Deposit competition intensifies or interest rates remain elevated, halting NIM expansion. Asset quality deteriorates, leading to higher provisions for credit losses. The high dividend payout ratio becomes unsustainable, forcing a dividend cut that triggers a sell-off. Base CaseCentral scenario The bank continues its gradual recovery as high-cost liabilities reprice downward and fixed-rate loans reprice upward. NIM expands toward 2.30%, supporting stable quarterly net income of $10-11 million. The $0.44 annualized dividend is maintained, supported by improving payout coverage as EPS rises toward $0.61-0.64. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case for Kearny Financial centers on its improving profitability metrics and core lending strength, highlighted by a 30 basis point expansion in its net interest margin to 2.18% for FY 2026. Strategic balance sheet remixing—concentrating growth in higher-yielding categories like C&I, construction, and home equity while reducing multifamily exposure—is driving sustainable earnings growth. Additionally, the bank maintains a strong capital position with regulatory capital ratios exceeding 'well-capitalized' thresholds, supported by a consistent dividend that enhances total shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |