KBR Inc Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryEngineering & Construction Beta (adjusted)0.63 Intrinsic Value $53.75median of 5 methods · middle span $50-$55based on filings through 3 Jul 2026 Market Price $34.24Price as of 2 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 57% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+57%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.3B Enterprise Value $6.6B Shares Outstanding 125M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary KBR, Inc. is currently undervalued because the public market fails to distinguish between its two structurally distinct business segments: Mission Technology Solutions (MTS) and Sustainable Technology Solutions (STS). MTS provides high-scale, long-duration government and defense services with a massive backlog but lower margins. In contrast, STS delivers high-margin process technologies, green ammonia, and energy transition solutions. The planned tax-free spin-off of MTS, targeted for early January 2027, represents a major catalyst to unlock shareholder value by allowing each business to be valued independently by its natural buyer base. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$35.00 Mean target$45.71 High · most bullish analyst$60.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $36.0015% The planned spin-off is delayed or faces execution hurdles, while further runoff of European military contingency work (EUCOM) and slower U.S. defense/NASA funding allocations drag down MTS revenue growth, compressing consolidated margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $45.7160% Matches the consensus meanKBR successfully executes its planned tax-free spin-off of the MTS business in January 2027. Post-separation, the sum-of-the-parts valuation is realized as STS trades at a premium multiple reflective of its high-margin technology profile, and MTS trades in line with government services peers. Bull CaseUpside scenario $60.0025% Activist investor pressure from Engine Capital or Irenic Capital leads to a full sale of the company or separate parts-sales to strategic buyers, commanding premium multiples. STS is valued as a pure-play high-margin green technology leader, while MTS is acquired by a defense prime or private equity GovCon buyer. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |