KB Home Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryResidential Construction Beta (adjusted)1.23 Intrinsic Value $45.59median of 5 methods · middle span $45-$53based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $45.75Price as of 2 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.8B Enterprise Value $4.5B Shares Outstanding 60.4M diluted Next Earnings Date17 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend6 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary KB Home is navigating a challenging U.S. housing market characterized by elevated mortgage rates, persistent inflation, and affordability constraints. While the company's unique Built-to-Order (BTO) model provides a key point of differentiation and helps mitigate speculative inventory risk, it faces significant near-term margin compression. In Q1 2026, housing gross profit margins contracted sharply to 15.3% from 20.2% in the prior year due to pricing concessions, higher land costs, and lower operating leverage. Although net orders showed modest growth, near-term upside remains capped by ongoing affordability headwinds and the necessity of aggressive financing incentives. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$43.00 Mean target$58.67 High · most bullish analyst$77.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Mortgage rates rise further or remain 'higher for longer,' severely dampening entry-level buyer demand. Elevated tariffs on construction materials and persistent land cost inflation further squeeze gross margins below 15%, while a shrinking backlog leads to steeper-than-expected revenue declines. Base CaseCentral scenario The housing market remains constrained by elevated mortgage rates hovering around 6.5%-6.7%, forcing KB Home to continue offering pricing concessions and financing buydowns. Revenues and deliveries are expected to decline year-over-year in the near term, with Q2 2026 revenues projected at approximately $1.09 billion. Margins will stabilize in the 15.0%-15.6% range as the company leverages its BTO model and improves build times, supporting a fair valuation with limited immediate upside. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |