Katapult Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryConsumer Finance Beta (adjusted)1.36 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $4.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $381.8M Enterprise Value $435.4M Shares Outstanding 84.8M diluted Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Katapult Holdings is undergoing a highly transformative all-stock merger with The Aaron's Company and CCF Holdings LLC, expected to close in Q3 2026. While the company has demonstrated a strong operational turnaround in Q1 2026—reversing a net loss to a net income of $5.7 million and growing revenue by 9.8%—significant near-term risks remain. These include substantial going concern doubts related to its revolving credit facility maturing in December 2026, and massive dilution for current stockholders, who are expected to own only 6% of the combined entity post-merger. A Hold recommendation is warranted until the merger closes and the combined capital structure is stabilized. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.50 Mean target$6.75 High · most bullish analyst$7.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Severe dilution to legacy Katapult shareholders (retaining only ~6.2% of the combined entity), coupled with going concern risks if the company fails to refinance its revolving credit facility maturing in December 2026. Base CaseCentral scenario The merger with Aaron's and CCF Holdings successfully closes in Q3 2026, creating a scaled omnichannel lease-to-own platform with over $4 billion in pro forma revenue. The combined scale helps resolve Katapult's near-term refinancing risks and improves unit economics, though current shareholders experience significant dilution. Bull CaseUpside scenario Successful completion of the three-way merger with Aaron's and CCFI, unlocking massive omnichannel scale, over $4 billion in pro forma revenue, and significant cost and technology synergies. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |